DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/31 11:03
Grains Mixed at Midday
Corn is 1 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents higher, and wheat is
flat to 6 cents higher.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 110 points as active trade
continues. The dollar index is 5 points higher. Interest rate products are
mixed. Energies are mixed with crude $0.40 higher. Livestock trade is mixed
with hogs leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $20.00.
Corn trade is 2-3 cents lower at midday in choppy pre-report action with
trade remaining range bound. Ethanol margins remain very poor, with more plants
shutting down, with ethanol at a 35 cent premium with unleaded trying to bounce
off the lows. Corn basis will likely continue to see pressure except for
export-oriented locations. Rains will keep early fieldwork slow. The USDA
announced 113,000 metric tons of old crop corn sold to Japan. On the report,
the average guess is for 94.325 million acres on a range of 92.5 million to
96.4 million, with stocks at 8.125 billion bushels on a range of 7.845 billion
to 8.492 billion. On the May contract, support is the lower Bollinger Band at
$3.27, and resistance the 20-day at $3.56.
Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents higher with profit taking and position
squaring ahead of the report today as we ease back from overbought conditions.
Meal is $3.00 to $4.00 lower and oil flat to 10 points higher. South America is
continuing to harvest with port disruptions this biggest concern at the moment
with talks of strikes in Argentina as well, while the Brazilian ral remains
very weak. New-crop soybeans will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage
incentive with the price ratio now at 2.4 or better as we approach early
planting with today's report expected to encourage further realignment. The
acre range on the report is at 84.865 million acres with the range at 82.7 to
87.1 million, with stocks at 2.241 billion on a range of 2.075 billion to 2.701
billion. The May soybean chart support is the 20-day at 8.68, and the recent
high at $8.97 as resistance.
Wheat trade is mostly flat with two-sided trade ahead of the report with
Kansas City trade leading. Russia continues to review export policies for the
short term as well, with local values elevated. Kansas City is at a 82-cent
discount to Chicago on the May with choppy trade continuing, while Minneapolis
is -34 with wider action ongoing. On the report acres are expected at 44.982
million on a range of 44.35 million to 46.0 million with stocks at 1.432
billion on a range of 1.385 to 1.572 billion. The May Kansas City chart support
is the 20-day at $4.59, with resistance the $5.08 upper Bollinger Band.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
Copyright 2020 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
Your local weather forecast from DTN can be sent to your email every morning free through DTN Snapshot