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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/18 11:50

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Trade is mixed at midday in another session of very slow trade.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures down 25 points. 
The interest rate products are mostly lower. The dollar index is 6 lower. 
Energies are mostly mixed with crude unchanged. Livestock trade is lower. 
Precious metals are higher with gold up $4.50.


   Corn trade is narrowly mixed in quiet midday trade with the market still 
looking for footing going into the weekend. Long liquidation could reemerge 
today, but there could be some short covering going into the weekend, with the 
big crop tour coming up next week. Ethanol margins remain solid with the corn 
and energy complex moving in tandem, although ethanol futures are softer this 
morning. Trade will be watching for gulf export business as South American 
harvest wrapping up on double crop corn has basis starting to firm on export 
offers. On the December chart support is at $3.63 1/4 which is the new low for 
the move which we tested overnight and the lower Bollinger Band. Resistance is 
at the 10-day moving average at $3.74.


   Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with wetter weather forecasted for next week 
when the crop tour will be looking for evidence of the USDA projected yields. 
Meal is flat to $1 lower, and oil is 40 to 50 points higher. Trade has found 
more support the second half of the week with disappointing rains in Iowa with 
trade starting to ease oversold conditions with fresh export demand remaining 
strong with China buying optional origin yesterday. On the November chart 
support is at the fresh low for the move at $9.21, then the 1-year low printed 
in June at $9.07. The 10-day moving average is chart resistance at $9.45. 


   Wheat trade is mixed at midday with wheat continuing the pattern of firmer 
overnight trade, before turning soft during the day session with Minneapolis 
wheat clinging to some light gains. The dollar rally has faded further which 
should help to keep the U.S. more competitive with Russian logistical 
bottlenecks coming forward with their big crop. Spring wheat harvest should 
move past the halfway point with harvest pressure starting to ease. Trade is 
heavily oversold, which should translate into bigger short covering at some 
point ahead of winter wheat planting. On the December Kansas City contract 
support is the $4.38 fresh low with resistance at the 10-day at $4.66.  

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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